Posts by Manager

Fed to the Rescue!!! Once again, the Federal Reserve did exactly what was expected, lowered the Fed Funds rate by 25 bps while stating the pace of change would slow. At the same time, the bond marketing fearing the Fed “swing and a miss” on inflation again, sold off, raising longer term yields. And of…

Where’s the Beef? Having been through the third quarter earnings reports and into the fourth quarter guidance, one must ask, “where is the beef?” Or said differently, the expectations for accelerated revenue and earnings growth attributed to the AI (artificial) revolution have yet to materialize.  Except for a few companies that are leading the charge,…

We Are Back! After a long hiatus we are back to comment on this extraordinary bull market!  Despite the sense that most everything is overvalued, the transformative nature of the technologies just beginning to be deployed will likely show in hindsight, earnings forecasts may have been too low. There will be starts and stops, acceleration…

We are in the midst of what has heretofore been the seasonally weakest time of the year for stock performance.  In as much as stock performance is driven by earnings surprises, it is not too far a stretch to understand this weakness.   Historically, the summer quarter, packed with employee vacations, makes outsized achievements more difficult,…

The News headlines recently have been dominated by the new virus variant dubbed delta. Extremely contagious, it’s said on average one person can infect nine others, but with similar morbidity factors to the regular way flu.  Those that need worry are the very elder, the very obese, and anyone with co-morbidity concerns. The initial market…

This past week saw bonds rally and yields fall as some of the ever-present inflation fears were quelled.  This, after all, is the bet that growth investors are making in their pursuit of earnings performance.  That the Federal Reserve position, inflation is transitory owing to one-time demand excesses and various supply chain shocks, will be…

The last several decades have seen dramatic and accelerating change in the investment and economic landscape.  Looking back twenty-five years or so, the commercialization of the internet in the 1990’s gave rise to the ability to disintermediate virtually everything- how we live, how we play, how we consume, how we communicate, how interact to name…

In a masterful performance the Federal Reserve this week signaled that it recognized inflation running well ahead of targets. But the committee members speculate that the price increases will be transitory, suggesting that the onetime re-opening trade, enormous pent-up demand, as well as supply chain shocks are largely to blame, and as such, inflation will…

This past week, Biogen, a leading biotech firm, was granted approval for its controversial Alzheimer’s drug, Aduhelm, by the FDA.  Controversial because the efficacy of the drug was very much in question coming out of its Phase 3 trials.  Nonetheless, the FDA approved the drug based on its ability to remove a certain form of…

The last six months have been a frustrating time for growth investors.  Particularly those investors focused on emerging secular themes- new biotech developments, mRNA technologies, gene editing/therapies, gene sequencing, block chain technologies, AI (artificial intelligence), cloud infrastructure, the shift to EV/autonomous driving, and the like.   Not only have the securities of these firms lagged the…